Romney’s Nomination Hopes Without Christie

The New York Times posted multiple articles this week on the topic of Mitt Romney’s GOP nomination bid in light of recent developments. Most importantly, Romney will not be competing with New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, who was predicted to soar immediately to the head of the pack – as did Governor Rick Perry – if he had decided to run. Michael Shear’s article, “Christie’s Decision Leaves Republicans with Stark Choice” outlines the dynamics of the Republican Party, labeling it essentially a two-faction contest.

Shear describes two particular factions currently battling within the party. The first group includes just Romney as the major establishment candidate, although others thus far came and went, such as former Minnesota governor Tim Pawlenty and Indiana governor Mitch Daniels. According to the journalist, this group will be vying for funding and support from “wealthy industrialists” who wish to see conventional governance as it pertains to the economy. If Christie had entered the race, he would have challenged Romney for such support. The second group, backed primarily by the Tea Party, is considered the portion of the Republican Party propelled by anger and an intense need for change – and a strong desire to defeat the sitting president in the upcoming election. Major contenders in this group include Governor Rick Perry, who has recently lost steam in his campaign, as well as Hermann Cain and Newt Gingrich, who have conversely gained a great deal of momentum in recent weeks.

The intense competition within the Tea Party-backed, “firebrand” faction of the GOP presidential nomination race could likely prove advantageous for the front-running establishment candidate, Romney. In the same manner that Ross Perot split the Republican vote to benefit the Democrat Clinton in the 1992 presidential race, so too could Perry, Cain, Gingrich, Bachmann, etc. split the Republican vote in the primary to benefit the sole establishment candidate. With all of the “firebrand” candidates offering inflammatory remarks to appease the Tea Party, Romney could make his way smoothly to the nomination with minimal struggle.

With Christie out of the picture, Romney will also have the benefit of securing the donations of many important contributors. According to New York Times journalist Nicholas Confessore’s article on the subject, “Romney Signing Up Leading Republican Donors,” many large donors had initially advocated for Christie, even though he had yet to officially enter the race. Now that the New Jersey governor has made it clear that he does not wish to enter the race, the contributors are deciding to “come off the sidelines.” James B. Lee, Jr. – the vice chairman of JPMorgan Chase bank – is one example. He raised half a million dollars for Republican John McCain in 2008 and is more than capable of doing it again, this time for Romney. Perhaps even more significant, though, is the support Romney has acquired from two donors who had given contributions to President Obama in 2008: Daniel Loeb and Clifford Asness. Both hedge fund managers have rescinded their support from the president because of what they view as his poor fiscal policies.