Is the President Really in Trouble with the Black Vote?

Political professionals are predicting that the president will not have an easy time being reelected in 2012.  One of the key observations being made is that President Obama is losing support with the black democratic vote, a demographic that should be a definite stronghold, if ever there was one.  Nevertheless, critics in the African American community have claimed that he has paid too little attention to issues including the plight of inner city blacks.  Moreover, a Washington Post/ABC News poll indicated a sharp decrease in the number of black voters who “strongly favor” the president’s governance.

Another interesting development coinciding with this decrease in Democratic support is Herman Cain’s claim that African Americans have been “brainwashed” into supporting the Democrats.  As a black Republican GOP candidate, Cain strongly believes that the black community as a whole has been conditioned to avoid conservative points of view.  The Democratic Party, asserts the candidate, has facilitated the closed-mindedness that he believes currently exists in the black electorate.  The beginning clip includes an interesting discussion of this topic.

The high unemployment among African Americans is likely another factor contributing to President Obama’s political woes.  Whereas the national joblessness rate is in the ballpark of 9 percent, the unemployment of blacks is close to a whopping 17 percent.  In reaction, the president is pointing to his jobs bill, the fate of which is still uncertain.  The bill, however, is geared in many ways toward specifically alleviating the plight of lower income families, many of which are black. 

A recent Gallup poll indicated that 58 percent of Republicans are enthusiastic about voting in the upcoming election, as opposed to a mere 45 percent of Democrats.  The lack of energy within the Democratic Party could be attributed to the idea that voters, both black and non-black, simply expected too much from President Obama’s term in office.  Another possibility is that the president tried too hard to find a middle ground for various matters, thereby alienating both side.  A recent example could be the issue of Palestine, for which the president changed his stance recently.  Critics argue that the ultimate result was that President Obama lost support from both Palestinian supporters and the Jewish electorate.  Although the idea of compromise in government sounds like an ideal situation, it is possible that the president misjudged the potential negative impacts.  In an MSNBC clip, John Heilemann, the co-author of Game Change, describes President Obama as being an “indistinct president,” which “speaks to [his] failure to really articulate a core governing philosophy.” 

Ultimately, though, the likelihood of a significant number of black voters actually throwing their support against the sitting president is not great.  Neither is the likelihood of Herman Cain robbing a sizeable portion of the electorate from the Democrats.  The question remains, however, if voter apathy will be the deciding factor in 2012.  If more Republicans are enthusiastic about voting, then enough non-voting Democrats could prevent the president from sitting for a second term.