It has been a long time since American politics has seen a Texan with poor speaking and debating skills... And it is not clear if Governor Rick Perry truly does fit into that category, or if he simply is not used to the format of the GOP presidential debates. Or maybe his dislike for Mitt Romney unfairly overpowers Perry’s intellect and causes him to make inarticulate and muddled assertions. In any case, one thing is abundantly clear: he has not been fairing well over the past five Republican debates.
Unfortunately for the Texan, few things affect the public opinion polls more than the debates. This is, perhaps, the primary reason that his status in the race has declined in recent weeks, with the anti-Romney vote flocking to Cain and his impractical but ever-so-simple 9-9-9 plan. If practice makes perfect, then five appearances is hardly sufficient experience to mold Perry into the sharp debater necessary to compete with President Barack Obama’s eloquent yet confident manner of speaking. The harsher the GOP nomination process becomes – that is, the more invectives exchanged between Perry and Romney in these debates – the more difficult it will be in the general election, as the Democratic strategists will have a great deal to work with for their attack ads. And if Perry is incapable of outdebating his opponents in the first round, then he has no place in the general election. After all, the entire GOP nomination process is useless if the Republican Party cannot produce a viable candidate capable of defeating the sitting president.
Perry has been giving reactions to his most recent debate performance on October 18th in various interviews, essentially admitting that he did poorly by describing his distaste for the format. “It’s pretty hard to be able to sit and lay out your ideas and your concepts with a one-minute response,” said the candidate in one interview. He claims that the debates are schedule for the sole purpose of “tear[ing] down the candidates.” Just to be clear, Perry’s argument is thus: he is not a bad debater or speaker; the system of debate itself is the only flaw in the situation, and the only reason he is falling in the polls. He expressed concern with the aggressive nature of the debates, yet he has played a crucial role in attempting to “tear down” other potential nominees. At one point, he went out of his way to attack Mitt Romney on the topic of illegal immigration. The topic of the question was healthcare.
Now Perry is playing around with the idea of sitting out some of the next debates. Again, since the debates play such a crucial role in opinion polls, how is this a good plan? The answer from both political parties is, simply, that it is not. On the one hand, if he cannot compete in the debates, he should not be in the race in the first place. On the other hand, even if he cannot compete but refuses to be in the debates anyway, then he might as well extract himself from the race. It is very likely that if he skips out on the next GOP debate, his public opinion polls will continue to drop exponentially.
Friday, October 28, 2011
The Importance of Getting Out the Vote
Despite his attempts at making his vision for the country known, the American public views President Barack Obama as being indecisive in terms of the economy. In a recent New York Times/CBS News Poll, 56 percent of people do not believe that the president has offered a clear plan to save jobs. Just 38 percent of Americans believe that he does have a clear plan, with 6 percent unsure of the issue. What makes these numbers so devastating is that Obama has been selling his economic plan to the public for over a month and a half; he has traveled thousands of miles, and yet the public remains unconvinced. According to the New York Times, the electorate is in favor of many of the individual components of the plan that the president has set forth. For unknown reasons, however, the plan is failing to gain support as a whole. One possible reason for this is the overall distrust of the government, in conjunction with the persistently high unemployment rates.
This general lack of trust in the federal government may not necessarily affect the president’s reelection chances, as it would tend to disrupt the campaign of the GOP presidential candidate as well. Also as reported by the New York Times, statistics show that the Democratic president is maintaining support from within the black community despite the federal government’s inability to quell the economic downturn. Although many in the nation’s capital believe that Obama’s support in the black community has weakened, Helene Cooper asserts in her article entitled “Black Voters’ Support for Obamais Steady and Strong” that both public opinion polls and individual accounts support the fact that the president is just as likely to receive support from that community as he was in 2008. However, the difficulty will lay in the ability of the Democrats to spur enthusiasm among the electorate; that is, simply because the black community will continue to support the president in 2012, it does not mean that the “atypical” voters who contributed to the previous election will once again turn out to vote next year.
Therefore, the $70+ million already raised by President Obama for reelection will certainly be allocated to a large get-out-the-vote operation – called, quite creatively, Operation Vote – in key states like Florida, North Carolina, and Virginia. Obama campaign staffers assert that new voters can yet be reached as well, so there is a great pool of potential voters that the Democrats could tap into. Numerically, overwhelming support from the black population in states like North Carolina is necessary for a Democratic victory, which barely happened in 2008 – even with 300,000 black votes, President Obama won the state by a mere 14,000 votes. As a result, Operation Vote is seeking votes not just from the African American community, but from the Hispanic electorate as well. Funding for the campaign will not likely be an issue, so regional staff managers for Obama will have over a year to extract as many votes as possible from key areas. Whoever the GOP contender will be, it will be the challenge of a lifetime to acquire the necessary electoral votes in order to take back the White House.
Thursday, October 27, 2011
Making Political News Appeal to Young People
Harvey Levin of TMZ.com makes the point that if the media is attempting to attract the younger generation to traditional stories involving politics, then the journalists must use the voice of young people, instead of merely putting forth more of the same stories. He is attempting to reinvent the way news is published.
History of the Washington Press Corps
Donald Richie, the author of “Reporting from Washington,” discusses the changes in the way the media covers politics. He claims that each wave of technology throughout the years has allowed journalists to be more critical of the political system.
TMZ Washington
Harvey Levin, the creator of TMZ.com, an entertainment news publication, discusses a potential presence in Washington, D.C. He says that the only reason that TMZ is not currently in the capital is that he has too much to cover in Los Angeles. Ultimately, his aim would be to make politics accessible to those who think politics is boring, taking a personality-based approach.
Friday, October 21, 2011
Romney on the Defense, Not Cain
Tuesday's GOP presidential debate resembled a sporting contest rather than a political event. As CNN's Anderson Cooper introduced the Republican candidates, they appeared one by one, each with an eruption of applause. The candidates then positioned themselves at their respective podiums, as would a boxer in his corner of the ring. Each time a rival candidate landed a successful "jab" regarding healthcare or pulled off a skillful "uppercut" on the topic of illegal immigration, the audience beamed with excitement.
Contrary to many predictions, more attacks, it can be argued, were directed toward Mitt Romney than Hermann Cain. In other words, the trend thus far has been for an energetic and enthusiastic candidate to emerge, to rise in the polls, and then to take a great amount of heat at the next debate; October 18th was supposed to be the day that Cain bore the brunt of the attacks. Although he did have to defend his 9-9-9 plan a great deal, he was rarely the sole recipient of other particular lines of questioning. This is intuitive on one level, however, since his private sector experience and tax plan are the major elements of his candidacy that set him apart from the crowd. Other than that, Cain was asked only to explain his views on different issues when two or three other candidates were asked as well.
Throughout the debate, Governor Rick Perry took advantage of every opportunity to attack Romney. He on one occasion decided to give in and agree with Romney on the topic of the economy, but in general, one could conclude that the Texas governor is more threatened by Romney's candidacy than by the other front runner, Cain; or, it is equally possible that the two candidates simply do not like each other. Either way, the attacks made by Perry toward Romney quickly became personal. He made the claim, for example, that the former Massachusetts governor had no right to assert that he would change United States immigration policy for the better since he had previously hired illegal immigrants to work on his property. Romney responded, saying at first that he simply did not hire illegals to work for him, but later explaining that he was unaware that the company he hired had illegals on staff. When he was made aware of this fact, claims the candidate, he immediately fired the company. After being interrupted by Perry on numerous occasions during the exchange, Romney actually resorted to placing his hand on the Texas governor's shoulder, a harmless yet somehow very threatening maneuver.
Romney's Mormon faith was also a big topic of discussion, but most of the candidates seemed to come to his defense -- except for Perry. Freedom of religion was touted by all of the candidates, including Perry, although he chose his words carefully so as not to make his opponent look good, while also disagreeing with a pastor who had once introduced the Texas governor at a rally. Being the one candidate on the stage who stood by the position that Mormonism is a cult would have been bad politics. His heated attacks regarding Romney's Massachusetts healthcare bill, however, were not bad politics, another topic that put Romney on the defense, and which everybody on stage seemed to jump on.
It may actually be a good sign that Romney caught more flack than Cain during the debate. Perhaps it is a validation of his overall front runner status. It may also signify the frustration currently growing within the Republican Party regarding the candidacy of Romney. Some questions will be answered when new rounds of opinion poll results are released.
Contrary to many predictions, more attacks, it can be argued, were directed toward Mitt Romney than Hermann Cain. In other words, the trend thus far has been for an energetic and enthusiastic candidate to emerge, to rise in the polls, and then to take a great amount of heat at the next debate; October 18th was supposed to be the day that Cain bore the brunt of the attacks. Although he did have to defend his 9-9-9 plan a great deal, he was rarely the sole recipient of other particular lines of questioning. This is intuitive on one level, however, since his private sector experience and tax plan are the major elements of his candidacy that set him apart from the crowd. Other than that, Cain was asked only to explain his views on different issues when two or three other candidates were asked as well.
Throughout the debate, Governor Rick Perry took advantage of every opportunity to attack Romney. He on one occasion decided to give in and agree with Romney on the topic of the economy, but in general, one could conclude that the Texas governor is more threatened by Romney's candidacy than by the other front runner, Cain; or, it is equally possible that the two candidates simply do not like each other. Either way, the attacks made by Perry toward Romney quickly became personal. He made the claim, for example, that the former Massachusetts governor had no right to assert that he would change United States immigration policy for the better since he had previously hired illegal immigrants to work on his property. Romney responded, saying at first that he simply did not hire illegals to work for him, but later explaining that he was unaware that the company he hired had illegals on staff. When he was made aware of this fact, claims the candidate, he immediately fired the company. After being interrupted by Perry on numerous occasions during the exchange, Romney actually resorted to placing his hand on the Texas governor's shoulder, a harmless yet somehow very threatening maneuver.
Romney's Mormon faith was also a big topic of discussion, but most of the candidates seemed to come to his defense -- except for Perry. Freedom of religion was touted by all of the candidates, including Perry, although he chose his words carefully so as not to make his opponent look good, while also disagreeing with a pastor who had once introduced the Texas governor at a rally. Being the one candidate on the stage who stood by the position that Mormonism is a cult would have been bad politics. His heated attacks regarding Romney's Massachusetts healthcare bill, however, were not bad politics, another topic that put Romney on the defense, and which everybody on stage seemed to jump on.
It may actually be a good sign that Romney caught more flack than Cain during the debate. Perhaps it is a validation of his overall front runner status. It may also signify the frustration currently growing within the Republican Party regarding the candidacy of Romney. Some questions will be answered when new rounds of opinion poll results are released.
Tuesday, October 18, 2011
President Obama Jokes About Party Platforms
President Obama makes a joke using the idea of party platforms. In an attempt to make a point in a humorous way, he claims that if he proposed the Republican Platform to the Republicans in Congress, they would be against it. The humor lays in the fact that the platform is so important for a political party.
Republican Platform of 1960
Ties to Party Platforms
Trials and Tribulations Ahead of the Sitting President
Although President Barack Obama won the 2008 election by a comfortable margin -- capturing states that have for decades been Republican strongholds -- and has thus far raised almost $100 million for the 2012 campaign, reelection may not necessarily come so easy.
The Washington Post released an article on October 17th written by Rachel Weiner that describes the kind of press given to each of the candidates in the 2012 presidential contest. In reality, the article heralds no good news for President Obama, as Weiner cites a study by the Pew Research Center indicating that he has received the worst press coverage of all. The survey included press coverage from the last five months, of which only nine percent was positive. On the other hand, a whopping 36% of the press clips surveyed were deemed to be purely negative.
The difference between the coverage afforded the president now and when he was first running for office in 2008 is startling. Political rivals at that time had on occasion vented frustration at the overwhelmingly good press Obama received, almost hinting that it was unfair. Now, the president cannot seem to get on anybody’s good side. Rick Perry has received the most positive press coverage – but, alas, to no avail. Hermann Cain is lately receiving more positive coverage, but we shall see what happens after tonight’s Republican debate. Even Mitt Romney is maintaining at least equilibrium at 26 percent positive and 27 percent negative. But the president cannot seem to improve the positivity of his press coverage, only the quantity.
One of the key demographics that supported the president’s 2008 election was the Latino community. However, according to a CNN article posted yesterday, “Latinos to protest Obama’s immigration policies,” even that group is weaning in its support for President Obama. Hispanics in major metropolitan areas including New York City and San Francisco – areas that are meant to be hubs for Democratic support – are setting up protests targeting a nationwide law enforcement program being implemented by Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE). Known as “Secure Communities,” the program makes it easier for illegal immigrants with criminal records to be deported, and is being viewed as discriminatory. As the head of the Executive Branch of government, President Obama is likewise taking criticism from the Hispanic community, and for that reason is himself a target of protesters.
The New York Times has recently reported another obstacle to President Obama’s reelection. Journalist Mark Lander’s headline reads, “LookingToward 2012, Obama Finds North Carolina Less Receptive.” As North Carolina has traditionally voted for a Republican president, the Democratic president is trying hard to once again acquire the state’s electoral votes. However, citizens in the state are clearly uneasy and much less enthusiastic about the upcoming election. One sign, referring to Obama’s campaign slogan, read simply, “We Believed. We Voted. Now What?” Although the people the president is meeting in North Carolina are not hostile to the president, it is unclear whether the masses who came out to vote for him three years ago will feel compelled to act, or to sit the next election out. In the latter case, North Carolina will likely go red.
The Washington Post released an article on October 17th written by Rachel Weiner that describes the kind of press given to each of the candidates in the 2012 presidential contest. In reality, the article heralds no good news for President Obama, as Weiner cites a study by the Pew Research Center indicating that he has received the worst press coverage of all. The survey included press coverage from the last five months, of which only nine percent was positive. On the other hand, a whopping 36% of the press clips surveyed were deemed to be purely negative.
The difference between the coverage afforded the president now and when he was first running for office in 2008 is startling. Political rivals at that time had on occasion vented frustration at the overwhelmingly good press Obama received, almost hinting that it was unfair. Now, the president cannot seem to get on anybody’s good side. Rick Perry has received the most positive press coverage – but, alas, to no avail. Hermann Cain is lately receiving more positive coverage, but we shall see what happens after tonight’s Republican debate. Even Mitt Romney is maintaining at least equilibrium at 26 percent positive and 27 percent negative. But the president cannot seem to improve the positivity of his press coverage, only the quantity.
One of the key demographics that supported the president’s 2008 election was the Latino community. However, according to a CNN article posted yesterday, “Latinos to protest Obama’s immigration policies,” even that group is weaning in its support for President Obama. Hispanics in major metropolitan areas including New York City and San Francisco – areas that are meant to be hubs for Democratic support – are setting up protests targeting a nationwide law enforcement program being implemented by Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE). Known as “Secure Communities,” the program makes it easier for illegal immigrants with criminal records to be deported, and is being viewed as discriminatory. As the head of the Executive Branch of government, President Obama is likewise taking criticism from the Hispanic community, and for that reason is himself a target of protesters.
The New York Times has recently reported another obstacle to President Obama’s reelection. Journalist Mark Lander’s headline reads, “LookingToward 2012, Obama Finds North Carolina Less Receptive.” As North Carolina has traditionally voted for a Republican president, the Democratic president is trying hard to once again acquire the state’s electoral votes. However, citizens in the state are clearly uneasy and much less enthusiastic about the upcoming election. One sign, referring to Obama’s campaign slogan, read simply, “We Believed. We Voted. Now What?” Although the people the president is meeting in North Carolina are not hostile to the president, it is unclear whether the masses who came out to vote for him three years ago will feel compelled to act, or to sit the next election out. In the latter case, North Carolina will likely go red.
Friday, October 14, 2011
Firebrand Candidates, a Trend
The 2012 Republican nomination contest can be likened to a campfire on a chilly autumn night. Each of the campers is huddled around the fire for warmth, something they both desire and need. In this fire is a log, burning evenly and unwaveringly. Every once in a while, however, the campers become excited when somebody throws in some napkins; the ensuing flames outshine the fire of the log and generate a great deal of comfortable heat, but the experience is nevertheless short-lived. In this scenario, the supporters of the Republican Party are the campers themselves, and the potential GOP nominees are the different sources of heat. Mitt Romney is the log, which may have taken a long time to light, but which also provides the stability of the entire campfire scene. The different wads of paper towel are the Tea Party favorites, which so far have proven to catch fire quickly and then lose energy equally as fast. Michele Bachmann fits this trend, along with Rick Perry. And now, Hermann Cain seems to have acquired almost superficially high poll numbers, becoming a "top tier" candidate in very little time. The question is, then, is Cain simply another "Republican flavor of the month," as described by Chris Cillizza of the Washington Post? That is, is he merely another wad of paper towels thrown into the fire? If he is, then for the flame to be maintained until dawn would be a miracle.
One possible explanation posed for this trend of firebrand candidates is the relative anonymity of the playing field. In other words, candidates emerge seemingly from nowhere, yet they seem very exciting. They are adept at generating enthusiasm and offer ideas that appeal greatly to those Republicans who want to make significant changes to government and ultimately defeat President Obama. Rick Perry is an example of a candidate who was not highly scrutinized until he became the clear frontrunner, at which time he was placed under a magnifying glass and had to defend against attacks from all sides. As a result, his popularity dropped, and the frontrunner spot was left open for another candidate – in this case, Hermann Cain. Cain has charisma and can claim a great deal of experience in the business/private sector. Nevertheless, there are certain factors that could very easily prevent the public from perceiving him as presidential material. One clear example is his potentially inflammatory stance on Muslims in government; he vowed to “take extra precautions” to protect the American people from “people who want to kill all of us.” Although he did not claim to be discriminating against Muslims – he asserted that he hired people of all races, ethnicities, and sexual orientation while he was in the private sector – he did seem to single them out. Moreover, Cain hinted that it is not important to know the names of various world leaders until the day before he meets them, and that he will only offer a plan on the situation in Afghanistan when he is briefed by the experts as president.
Such factors could very well perpetuate the trend we have thus far seen in the GOP nomination race. If so, it is likely that the trend will be confirmed very soon.
One possible explanation posed for this trend of firebrand candidates is the relative anonymity of the playing field. In other words, candidates emerge seemingly from nowhere, yet they seem very exciting. They are adept at generating enthusiasm and offer ideas that appeal greatly to those Republicans who want to make significant changes to government and ultimately defeat President Obama. Rick Perry is an example of a candidate who was not highly scrutinized until he became the clear frontrunner, at which time he was placed under a magnifying glass and had to defend against attacks from all sides. As a result, his popularity dropped, and the frontrunner spot was left open for another candidate – in this case, Hermann Cain. Cain has charisma and can claim a great deal of experience in the business/private sector. Nevertheless, there are certain factors that could very easily prevent the public from perceiving him as presidential material. One clear example is his potentially inflammatory stance on Muslims in government; he vowed to “take extra precautions” to protect the American people from “people who want to kill all of us.” Although he did not claim to be discriminating against Muslims – he asserted that he hired people of all races, ethnicities, and sexual orientation while he was in the private sector – he did seem to single them out. Moreover, Cain hinted that it is not important to know the names of various world leaders until the day before he meets them, and that he will only offer a plan on the situation in Afghanistan when he is briefed by the experts as president.
Such factors could very well perpetuate the trend we have thus far seen in the GOP nomination race. If so, it is likely that the trend will be confirmed very soon.
Thursday, October 13, 2011
Republicans and Democrats Agree, Romney is the Most Likely Candidate
David Axelrod, President Obama’s chief political strategist, is not losing sleep over Michele Bachman’s potential GOP nomination. Neither does he seem quite stressed about Rick Perry, or any of the other possible contenders for that matter, except one: Mitt Romney. It seems that a number of factors have caused Axelrod’s reelection team to begin going on the offensive against what it perceives to be a viable Republican opponent. Axelrod has, for instance, made an overarching criticism of Romney’s political career, saying that he is a “flip-flopper.” Such criticism can prove lethal, as the term invokes the famous political advertisement made against the Kerry campaign, during which the narrator utters the following phrase: “…whichever way the wind blows.” It is impossible to measure precisely how Kerry suffered from the advertisement in terms of electoral votes, yet it is abundantly clear that the candidate lost momentum. Ultimately, such action from the Democratic camp is a good indicator that Mitt Romney will likely acquire the Republican nomination by virtue of his ability to contend in a general election.
And apparently, the Republicans are beginning to agree with the Democrats on that point. Not only are many important donors making sure to throw support behind Romney, as described in a previous blog post dated October 7, 2011, but elected officials are publically showing their support for the candidate as well. Having Romney in place as a stable nominee for the Republican establishment is a source of comfort for many party members, though it is a source of vexation for the angry Tea Party activists. Recently, Republican Senator Thad Cochrane, along with former House Speaker J. Dennis Hastert, announced support for Romney as the candidate most likely to succeed in a general election. Philip Rucker of the Washington Post was able to secure the following quote from Sen. Cochrane regarding the candidate: “It’s all coming together for him. People are beginning to be impressed with himand his thoughtful comments about the issues.” Perhaps most significantly, New Jersey Governor Christopher Christie officially endorsed Romney as well, further entrenching him as the establishment candidate. According to Christie, he is the most pragmatic choice for Republican nominee.
With that idea in mind, the potential inadequacies that Mitt Romney may represent to a Tea Partier could quickly fade in the context of the overall goal. That is, the only thing many angry Tea Party activists want more than to have one of their own in office is to beat President Obama in the upcoming election. Since potential nominees such as Bachman, Perry, and Cain are volatile in terms of their political maneuvers and popularity, stability seems to be one key thing that is lacking in any “pure” Tea Party candidate. Without this stability, it becomes that much more difficult to acquire enough electoral votes to defeat a sitting president, who has already raised upwards of $70 million for his campaign. What CNN journalist Gloria Borger describes as “political reality” must sync up with the ideological goal of any movement, or else the movement itself will not yield a tangible product.
Monday, October 10, 2011
Republican 2008 National Convention Preparations
Maria Cino, President and CEO of the Republican National Convention, as well as other Republican Convention officials unveiled the podium for the 2008 convention. They described the vast budget utilized for the preparations, as well as the expensive high definition video monitors they were in the process of setting up.
Charlotte Mayor Anthony Fox on the 2012 Democratic National Convention
Charlotte, North Carolina Mayor Anthony Fox explains how the city was fortunate enough to be able to host the 2012 Democratic Convention. He recalls a particular conversation he had with President Obama.
Democratic National Convention Preparations
Steve Kerrigan discusses the immense preparations being made for the upcoming Democratic National Convention in Charlotte, North Carolina. Planners are already working on the setup for the convention, which will occur roughly one year from now.
Friday, October 7, 2011
Romney’s Nomination Hopes Without Christie
The New York Times posted multiple articles this week on the topic of Mitt Romney’s GOP nomination bid in light of recent developments. Most importantly, Romney will not be competing with New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, who was predicted to soar immediately to the head of the pack – as did Governor Rick Perry – if he had decided to run. Michael Shear’s article, “Christie’s Decision Leaves Republicans with Stark Choice” outlines the dynamics of the Republican Party, labeling it essentially a two-faction contest.
Shear describes two particular factions currently battling within the party. The first group includes just Romney as the major establishment candidate, although others thus far came and went, such as former Minnesota governor Tim Pawlenty and Indiana governor Mitch Daniels. According to the journalist, this group will be vying for funding and support from “wealthy industrialists” who wish to see conventional governance as it pertains to the economy. If Christie had entered the race, he would have challenged Romney for such support. The second group, backed primarily by the Tea Party, is considered the portion of the Republican Party propelled by anger and an intense need for change – and a strong desire to defeat the sitting president in the upcoming election. Major contenders in this group include Governor Rick Perry, who has recently lost steam in his campaign, as well as Hermann Cain and Newt Gingrich, who have conversely gained a great deal of momentum in recent weeks.
The intense competition within the Tea Party-backed, “firebrand” faction of the GOP presidential nomination race could likely prove advantageous for the front-running establishment candidate, Romney. In the same manner that Ross Perot split the Republican vote to benefit the Democrat Clinton in the 1992 presidential race, so too could Perry, Cain, Gingrich, Bachmann, etc. split the Republican vote in the primary to benefit the sole establishment candidate. With all of the “firebrand” candidates offering inflammatory remarks to appease the Tea Party, Romney could make his way smoothly to the nomination with minimal struggle.
With Christie out of the picture, Romney will also have the benefit of securing the donations of many important contributors. According to New York Times journalist Nicholas Confessore’s article on the subject, “Romney Signing Up Leading Republican Donors,” many large donors had initially advocated for Christie, even though he had yet to officially enter the race. Now that the New Jersey governor has made it clear that he does not wish to enter the race, the contributors are deciding to “come off the sidelines.” James B. Lee, Jr. – the vice chairman of JPMorgan Chase bank – is one example. He raised half a million dollars for Republican John McCain in 2008 and is more than capable of doing it again, this time for Romney. Perhaps even more significant, though, is the support Romney has acquired from two donors who had given contributions to President Obama in 2008: Daniel Loeb and Clifford Asness. Both hedge fund managers have rescinded their support from the president because of what they view as his poor fiscal policies.
Shear describes two particular factions currently battling within the party. The first group includes just Romney as the major establishment candidate, although others thus far came and went, such as former Minnesota governor Tim Pawlenty and Indiana governor Mitch Daniels. According to the journalist, this group will be vying for funding and support from “wealthy industrialists” who wish to see conventional governance as it pertains to the economy. If Christie had entered the race, he would have challenged Romney for such support. The second group, backed primarily by the Tea Party, is considered the portion of the Republican Party propelled by anger and an intense need for change – and a strong desire to defeat the sitting president in the upcoming election. Major contenders in this group include Governor Rick Perry, who has recently lost steam in his campaign, as well as Hermann Cain and Newt Gingrich, who have conversely gained a great deal of momentum in recent weeks.
The intense competition within the Tea Party-backed, “firebrand” faction of the GOP presidential nomination race could likely prove advantageous for the front-running establishment candidate, Romney. In the same manner that Ross Perot split the Republican vote to benefit the Democrat Clinton in the 1992 presidential race, so too could Perry, Cain, Gingrich, Bachmann, etc. split the Republican vote in the primary to benefit the sole establishment candidate. With all of the “firebrand” candidates offering inflammatory remarks to appease the Tea Party, Romney could make his way smoothly to the nomination with minimal struggle.
With Christie out of the picture, Romney will also have the benefit of securing the donations of many important contributors. According to New York Times journalist Nicholas Confessore’s article on the subject, “Romney Signing Up Leading Republican Donors,” many large donors had initially advocated for Christie, even though he had yet to officially enter the race. Now that the New Jersey governor has made it clear that he does not wish to enter the race, the contributors are deciding to “come off the sidelines.” James B. Lee, Jr. – the vice chairman of JPMorgan Chase bank – is one example. He raised half a million dollars for Republican John McCain in 2008 and is more than capable of doing it again, this time for Romney. Perhaps even more significant, though, is the support Romney has acquired from two donors who had given contributions to President Obama in 2008: Daniel Loeb and Clifford Asness. Both hedge fund managers have rescinded their support from the president because of what they view as his poor fiscal policies.
Cain, a Contender
Despite initially lagging behind in the race for the GOP presidential nomination, Hermann Cain is beginning to give frontrunner Mitt Romney a run for his money. After winning the Florida straw poll in late September, Cain has developed leads in key states, including Nebraska and West Virginia. He is also showing strong numbers for North Carolina, a state that President Obama will hope once again to win in the general election. In each of those states, it is becoming clear that Governor Rick Perry is quickly fading away; it is becoming equally clear, however, that Mitt Romney will be confronting a new challenge.
Ironically, many journalists have noted what seems like Cain’s lack of a campaign. He has, for instance, only four staff members working in Iowa – arguably the most crucial state for the primary – and has raised a relatively small amount of money. As Susan Saulny of the New York Times reports in her article, “A Candidate Writing His Own Campaign Rules,” Hermann Cain seems to be focusing more on completing a book tour than on running for president. The candidate disagrees with that assessment, though, claiming “the two complement one another.” He hopes that the book will allow him to be more widely recognized by voters. Cain also asserted that the minimal staff he has in Iowa does not mean that he is neglecting the state, as he has made almost thirty trips there in recent months.
Cain’s rise in the polls could be attributed to his ability to articulate a cohesive policy plan for the tax system – the 9-9-9 plan. The flat tax on personal income, businesses, and sales has backing from some economists who believe that, in theory, it could promote economic growth. The idea that the government will not be choosing who does and does not receive higher taxes may be popular with some, but critics argue that it will never pass congress. Since currently only states are allowed to charge sales tax, the new plan would be entering new territory, something that many are uncomfortable with. Ultimately, the viability of the plan remains in question, mostly by those who doubt that it can be applied to the real world. That is, if nothing were exempted from the sales tax, then it is quite possible that consumption would be lowered.
Although it is generally beneficial at this point in the primary race for Cain to have a relatively well-articulated economic plan, the candidate must be careful to avoid alienating too many voters should he be fortunate enough to run in the general election. Claiming that African Americans are being “brainwashed” into voting for the Democrats, for instance, could prove to be a major liability later in the presidential race. Similarly, CNN reported the following quotation, which could likely hurt the candidate later on: “Don’t blame Wall Street. Don’t blame the big banks. If you don’t have and you’re not rich, blame yourself.” Such divisive quotations tend to make one question a candidate’s electability.
Ironically, many journalists have noted what seems like Cain’s lack of a campaign. He has, for instance, only four staff members working in Iowa – arguably the most crucial state for the primary – and has raised a relatively small amount of money. As Susan Saulny of the New York Times reports in her article, “A Candidate Writing His Own Campaign Rules,” Hermann Cain seems to be focusing more on completing a book tour than on running for president. The candidate disagrees with that assessment, though, claiming “the two complement one another.” He hopes that the book will allow him to be more widely recognized by voters. Cain also asserted that the minimal staff he has in Iowa does not mean that he is neglecting the state, as he has made almost thirty trips there in recent months.
Cain’s rise in the polls could be attributed to his ability to articulate a cohesive policy plan for the tax system – the 9-9-9 plan. The flat tax on personal income, businesses, and sales has backing from some economists who believe that, in theory, it could promote economic growth. The idea that the government will not be choosing who does and does not receive higher taxes may be popular with some, but critics argue that it will never pass congress. Since currently only states are allowed to charge sales tax, the new plan would be entering new territory, something that many are uncomfortable with. Ultimately, the viability of the plan remains in question, mostly by those who doubt that it can be applied to the real world. That is, if nothing were exempted from the sales tax, then it is quite possible that consumption would be lowered.
Although it is generally beneficial at this point in the primary race for Cain to have a relatively well-articulated economic plan, the candidate must be careful to avoid alienating too many voters should he be fortunate enough to run in the general election. Claiming that African Americans are being “brainwashed” into voting for the Democrats, for instance, could prove to be a major liability later in the presidential race. Similarly, CNN reported the following quotation, which could likely hurt the candidate later on: “Don’t blame Wall Street. Don’t blame the big banks. If you don’t have and you’re not rich, blame yourself.” Such divisive quotations tend to make one question a candidate’s electability.
Wednesday, October 5, 2011
Gridlock due to Political Parties
Jonathan Cowan, the president of Third Way, explores the idea of gridlock on the congressional level. He would like to see certain reforms made to the system to avoid this inaction due to participation of political parties.
Improving Ballot Access in the American Political System
The organization Americans Elect is a reaction to what Elliot Ackerman calls the dysfunction of the political system. He explains the way the organization plans to ultimately improve ballot access without being a third party.
A Tea Party for the Democrats
A caller from Georgia comments on the influence political parties have on the United States. She explains her belief that the Democrats have to have a movement in the party similar to that of the Tea Party movement.
Saturday, October 1, 2011
Is the President Really in Trouble with the Black Vote?
Political professionals are predicting that the president will not have an easy time being reelected in 2012. One of the key observations being made is that President Obama is losing support with the black democratic vote, a demographic that should be a definite stronghold, if ever there was one. Nevertheless, critics in the African American community have claimed that he has paid too little attention to issues including the plight of inner city blacks. Moreover, a Washington Post/ABC News poll indicated a sharp decrease in the number of black voters who “strongly favor” the president’s governance.
Another interesting development coinciding with this decrease in Democratic support is Herman Cain’s claim that African Americans have been “brainwashed” into supporting the Democrats. As a black Republican GOP candidate, Cain strongly believes that the black community as a whole has been conditioned to avoid conservative points of view. The Democratic Party, asserts the candidate, has facilitated the closed-mindedness that he believes currently exists in the black electorate. The beginning clip includes an interesting discussion of this topic.
The high unemployment among African Americans is likely another factor contributing to President Obama’s political woes. Whereas the national joblessness rate is in the ballpark of 9 percent, the unemployment of blacks is close to a whopping 17 percent. In reaction, the president is pointing to his jobs bill, the fate of which is still uncertain. The bill, however, is geared in many ways toward specifically alleviating the plight of lower income families, many of which are black.
A recent Gallup poll indicated that 58 percent of Republicans are enthusiastic about voting in the upcoming election, as opposed to a mere 45 percent of Democrats. The lack of energy within the Democratic Party could be attributed to the idea that voters, both black and non-black, simply expected too much from President Obama’s term in office. Another possibility is that the president tried too hard to find a middle ground for various matters, thereby alienating both side. A recent example could be the issue of Palestine, for which the president changed his stance recently. Critics argue that the ultimate result was that President Obama lost support from both Palestinian supporters and the Jewish electorate. Although the idea of compromise in government sounds like an ideal situation, it is possible that the president misjudged the potential negative impacts. In an MSNBC clip, John Heilemann, the co-author of Game Change, describes President Obama as being an “indistinct president,” which “speaks to [his] failure to really articulate a core governing philosophy.”
Ultimately, though, the likelihood of a significant number of black voters actually throwing their support against the sitting president is not great. Neither is the likelihood of Herman Cain robbing a sizeable portion of the electorate from the Democrats. The question remains, however, if voter apathy will be the deciding factor in 2012. If more Republicans are enthusiastic about voting, then enough non-voting Democrats could prevent the president from sitting for a second term.
Where's the Enthusiasm for Romney?
News sources from the New York Times to the Washington Post have begun to dwell on the fact that Mitt Romney is never quite a source of excitement for the Good Old Party. He has, for sure, been a strong presence for over five years as a presidential contender. Nevertheless, few are ever truly ecstatic about his candidacy. When Texas Governor Rick Perry entered the race in August, the excitement in the Republican ranks was palpable, and the media coverage was overwhelmingly positive. The potential for New Jersey Governor Chris Christie to join the Republican primary race is likewise eliciting intrigue for the party. As for Mitt Romney: he continues to just be there, to be a contender.
In Philip Rucker’s Washington Post article “Mitt Romney,never Republicans’ dream date, hopes to be the one they marry,” the journalist acknowledges one possible explanation for the hopeful presidential nominee’s current situation. He claims that, whereas some of the more high profile candidates may hog the limelight with dramatic statements, Romney is not exactly prone to saying “incendiary things.” Rucker likens the candidate’s strategy to the tortoise and the hare parable, indicating that Romney prefers to pace himself, and to keep his head down in a firefight. In a competitive general election, the strategy could prove invaluable, assuming it allows him to dodge the many attacks from rival GOP presidential hopefuls.
The intense competition Romney is facing in the Republican Party also tends to improve his quality as a candidate. With Perry almost instantly moving to the front of the line, for instance, Romney has been forced to step up his game. His performance at the recent Republican debates is one example of this improved performance. Being able to adapt to such competition and cautiously proceed is an important skill that he has seemed to acquire. That is, whenever an exciting, new candidate appears on the horizon, Romney simply braces himself for the storm. The novelty soon wears off, and he finds himself once again at the head of the pack. Certain pundits, as described in Rucker’s article, believe Romney to be the candidate the Republican Party needs, but not always necessarily the one they want.
Jeff Zeleny of the New York Times quoted former Minnesota governor and GOP presidential candidate Tim Pawlenty on the subject in his article, “Romney Endures More GOP Flirtation with Alternatives.” The former governor justified his endorsement of Romney, asserting that “It’s human nature to think the grass is always greener somewhere else.” Romney has been known to govern liberally in the past, which is a point of contention for conservatives. The Massachusetts healthcare legislation he signed into law, as well as his history of supporting abortion rights tends to rob the former governor of support. As the ideology tends to the extremes in primary races, it is no wonder why Romney fails to be the hot topic. If he can stick it out until the general election, however, his moderate history could afford him the swing voters that could give him the presidency.
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