Mitt Romney in South Carolina

Various online news publications this week have discussed Mitt Romney’s presence, or lack thereof, in South Carolina.  The state is being represented as crucial to obtaining the Republican presidential nomination, as it has historically tended to side with the eventual choice for nominee.  An overall Republican stronghold, the state boasts a large number of very conservative Tea Party activists, which does not bode well for Romney; nor does the fact that Hermann Cain, a conservative Southerner, is seeing strong polling numbers there allow him much breathing room.  After all, the Romney campaign does not seem to be putting much emphasis on its operations in South Carolina – only three paid employees are currently working in the state, according to Peter Hamby and Shawna Shepherd’s CNN article entitled “Romneyfinds himself man to beat in South Carolina.”

This is interesting to note since, as the title of the article would indicate, Romney still somehow happens to be the frontrunner.  Logically speaking – and it is certainly a stretch to discuss anything in this race in a rational light – Romney is not a great match with the state.  That is, not only is he a Northerner with a few less-than-conservative views, at least within recent memory, but he is also a Mormon.  With the number of South Carolinians self identifying as Fundamentalist Christian and Evangelical reaching forty percent, the potential for Romney’s faith to be a major liability is great; and yet, the impact of religion on this particular race has so far remained minimal.    

One possible explanation for the slack Romney has been given thus far in the race is the fact that today’s major issue is the economy – something that his campaign has emphasized, and something to which his past business experience would certainly apply.  In the state in question, for instance, the population has suffered from the fourth highest unemployment rate in the country. 

Despite his strong poll numbers and economic expertise, certain political scientists believe that a Romney win in South Carolina is an impossibility.  According to Reilly Moore’s article in SpringValleyPatch.com entitled “Romney Ignores SC, Keeps Frontrunner Status,” more than a few academics agree with this assessment.  Robert Oldendick, for instance – a professor at the University of South Carolina – believes that the candidate’s win in his state would be contingent on being the frontrunner in the previous two primaries in New Hampshire and Iowa, which he believes will not happen for Romney.  Simply put, “I don’t think he can win here,” says Oldendick.

Not all academics share this view of the situation, though.  Despite his incredibly sparse campaign presence in the state, a decision which may have been a strategic one, it is still possible that Mitt Romney’s overall positive national coverage could be enough to secure him votes.  In other words, his success elsewhere has given him name recognition, even in South Carolina.  And his campaign has thus far remained error free – for the most part.  If he keeps up the clean campaigning, he might just have a good chance in the Southern state.