Voter Turnout and Presidential Debates

In 2004 Curtis Gans predicted a high level of voter turnout based on the great interest in the debates.  He also noted that the increased population would increase the potential turnout.

Latino Voter Turnout

Latino voter turnout tends to be increased when a Latino is the candidate, such as was the prediction of Arturo Vargas for the 2006 midterm election in New Jersey.  He notes other instances as well in which increased voter turnout could make key impacts for that election.

Democratic National Committee Seeks New Voters

The Democratic National Committee chairman Tim Kaine worked in 2010 to improve voter turnout in a key demographic – first time voters.  He acknowledges that turnout will certainly not be as impressive as in a presidential election, but notes that just an additional ten percent of first time voters could help Democratic candidates throughout the country for the midterm elections. 

Mitt Romney’s Wealth as a Liability

As a major contender in the GOP primary, Mitt Romney must be careful to limit his potential liabilities as a politician.  Governor Rick Perry is proving to be a staunch rival at this point in the race, so Romney is beginning to make various strategic moves to reassert his position as frontrunner.  He is, for instance, taking advantage of Perry’s stance on Social Security; the view that each state should run its own program is proving unpopular, and Perry has therefore left himself vulnerable to attacks by his rival.  Romney has also begun to employ a defensive maneuver:  he is trying to become, that is, an average Joe.

Romney has identified that, perhaps, owning a number of multi-million-dollar properties may cause a few problems in terms of relating to the lower and middle classes, especially in the harsh economic climate.  The natural inclination for any political consultant would therefore be to limit any appearance of superiority in order to make the candidate more likeable to the constituents.  The most recent trend, as described the New York Times article, “Adventures of a Common Man…Mitt Romney?” has the candidate posing for photo ops doing normal things. 

Not only is Romney eating all sorts of middle class luxuries like pork on a stick and Subway sandwiches, but he is also going out of his way to purchase economy class tickets from the inexpensive Southwest Airlines.  He is maintaining a level of – well-publicized – frugality in his campaign spending, a practice that he claims carries over into his private life.  The candidate is hoping to appear at once modest and thrifty.

Publicizing so heavily the normality of his campaign life could end up backfiring for the candidate.  In other words, making mundane events such as a meal at a fast food restaurant into a photo op is so blatantly obvious that he could become a caricature.  The comedy of the situation it well outlined in a site called Mitt’s List, where the candidate’s common man shenanigans are logged with a humorous spin.  A picture depicting Romney’s preference for the economical Southwest Airlines is described in the site, only with the sarcastic caption, “Bags fly free…Golf bags fly free too.”  Another photograph, taken with Bill O’Reilly and two staff members at Fenway Park in Boston, seems suspiciously staged – the entire row below the candidate is conveniently cleared out.

Nevertheless, Romney’s wealth could end up being less of a problem than anticipated.  His experience with business and money management could be seen as a positive attribute, a reason for the electorate to trust him to help bring the country out of harsh economic times.  The question remains if his “common man” campaign is necessary, or even counterproductive.  In all likelihood, the photo ops will serve little more than fodder for satire.  Before the end of the GOP primary race, more serious issues will certainly arise.    

President Obama, Back in Campaign Mode

Although President Obama will be securing the Democratic nomination for the 2012 presidential campaign, he is slowly putting more emphasis on acting like a pure Democrat, as opposed to a bipartisan facilitator.  Quite often during primary races do candidates tend to the extremities of their respective parties, as can be readily observed by watching the GOP presidential debates.  Yet it appears that this phenomenon occurs even when the primary race has no competition.  The perfect example of this is the current Democratic primary “race,” during which the president is making his liberal tendencies very clear to his support base.

As outlined in Dan Balz’ article for the Washington Post, “Obama turns fire on Republicans," the president is changing his approach to various issues in an effort to appeal to the Democratic voters who would reelect him.  No longer is he willing to concede as frequently to Republican wishes as before.  Instead of striving for a consensus – which at times afforded the president grief from his own party for giving in too easily – he is now “drawing lines in the sand” to make it absolutely clear where his allegiance lies.  In short, his political moves are being made now for the purposes of reelection. 

President Obama’s push for taxing the wealthiest Americans is perhaps one of the most manifest examples of his effort to appease Democratic voters.  The outrage of many Republicans, who claim the idea is merely class warfare, makes the political distinction necessary to properly label the Obama Campaign a partisan enterprise.  That is, he is giving the electorate a tangible example of why he can be trusted to uphold  the Democratic platform should he be elected once again.

Another important distinction made in the last few days is the president’s view on Medicare (link).  Both Republicans and Democrats have expressed the need to revamp the program to make it more economical and sustainable. However, the president was sure to articulate his intention to prevent the insurance companies from taking advantage of citizens by avoiding the possibility of the program becoming a “voucher plan.”  This distinction is unlikely to be maintained since it is a relatively complex issue that is subject to political rhetoric geared toward confusing the electorate.

And finally, an issue that has caused President Obama much grief recently – the Palestinian application for statehood – can be viewed through the prism of a primary/general election campaign.  Although the president initially pushed Israel to accept the borders that were in place pre-1967, a political decision that aggravated the Jewish electorate in the United States, he has now taken the stance that the United States should veto the Palestinian’s bid for statehood.  One can easily make the argument that one of the president’s intentions is to once again acquire the support of Jewish voters.  The effort, though, may simply result in a loss of support from voters who subscribe to both sides of the argument.

Special Interests in Campaign Finance

President Obama discusses campaign finance in a weekly address, during which he claims ultimately that "sunlight is the best disinfectant" in terms of potential corruption in campaigns.  He warns that it may give certain organizations more influence in government than citizens.

The Outdated Public Financing System

Meredith McGehee describes the current drawbacks of public financing in presidential campaigns, including the limitation of funding for each state.  She claims that the system should be updated.